https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IjB0wFMFwE

  • Mixed NFP brings no further clarity
  • Headline payrolls number misses expectations, falls below 200k but
  • Unemployment rate falls more than expected, average work week increases
  • Net net, Fed rate expectations unchanged until July 2016 = no change in market view
  • Stocks & commodities fall as investors trim risk; may recover today
  • The big move Friday was in stocks and commodities, which fell as US investors reduced risk ahead of the long weekend & reopening of China markets
  • China stocks trading higher today after reassuring comments by Chinese officials at the G20 meeting. This could bring about some recovery in risk appetite, which would be EUR-negative, AUD & NZD positive

Schedule for this week:
– Monday: Germany & Norway industrial production for July. US holiday
– Tuesday: China trade balance for July expected to show big fall in imports = negative for AUD, NZD and many EM currencies. Japan, Eurozone final estimate of Q2 GDP. US labor market conditions index for August; NFIB small business optimism survey
– Wednesday: Bank of Canada expected to hold rates steady, reiterate dovish stance; UK industrial production for July; US Job Opening & Labor Turnover Survey
– Thursday RBNZ and Bank of England meetings. RBNZ could well cut rates again. Bank of England to remain on hold; focus will be on how many dissenters there are. Also China CPI and PPI data for August.
– Friday: final German CPI for July; US PPI data for August, U of M consumer sentiment index

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