Beware of this Bad Trading Habit 

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Tonight we discuss why we’re not out of the woods yet and why we should never try to predict what happens next.

Hey guys good evening everybody welcome to another edition. FED edition of the nightly wrap-up show.

Hope everybody had a good day. So today was fed day earlier in the week there was hinted that there was going to be a 75 basis point hike and the question was were they going to commit to this and the question going forward is what was their plans for the future.

We got the 75 base point hike um they they basically said that this is not going to be a normal occurrence they did say though in July they’re looking for another one somewhere between the 50 and the 75 base points but again rest assured right it’s not going to be a normal thing.

bad trading habit

We’ll see right one day at a time that’s all we could live for and yesterday if you guys remember yesterday the bulls had every opportunity to rally and they just couldn’t do it.

They just absolutely couldn’t do it uh after 34 35 points on the on the cues to the downside in the last three four days while losing the 20-day moving average the queues were up 50 cents yesterday and the
question was what was gonna happen today and the one thing that we always talk
about is don’t try to predict okay if
you’re in the business of trying to be
right and impressing some uh 14 year old
on tick tock how smart and brilliant you
are number one remember we’re all idiots
okay we know nothing we know absolutely
nothing the only thing we know is the
data that we are bringing in that
everybody has right in front of them and
we’re trying to make an educational uh
decision we’re trying to make a
thought-provoking uh decision that is
going to put our money not only in a
place that is safe but it could thrive
at the same time and going into this
session i i kind of you know i had both
sides you know i was kind of planning on
both sides today you know we’ll talk
about the pivots in a second so it
wasn’t one of those scenarios today that
there was 25 pivots long 25 pivots short
it was more like well let’s see what we
can get right let’s see we can get um
and then let’s kind of move on after uh
after the fed and this is kind of what
we’re on uh today right and the way the
day played out was pretty similar um i
think uh this was you know a small win
for the balls i i think that’s the best
way of saying it i i was talking about
in the webinar prior uh prior to um
the fed that i believe that if any day
right if any day uh the fed was going to
uh spark any type of desire for bulls to
start rallying and put in a 500 to a
thousand point move today today would
have been the day because again if you
look at uh if you look at what the
diamonds have done in the last you know
three four days you know we went down
what 18 1900 points so the idea that we
could have rallied back today 500 or a
thousand points wouldn’t have been
outlandish at all not at all but instead
um you know bulls did okay today i think
that’s the best way of saying it they
did okay uh one percent rise for the dow
doesn’t really turn the needle two and a
half percent um rise by the queues and
and here’s kind of the important point
and this is the first day that i could i
could honestly say
for for for a while i mean going back to
3:44
since we lost the bottom channel here it
3:47
kind of felt okay today right like names
3:50
like amazon that were weak all week
3:53
say that five times fast they were weak
3:55
all week right was actually holding up
3:58
today pretty well a name like tesla
4:00
today uh there was a blog that came out
4:02
that called tesla fraud ride fraud this
4:05
that the other thing right there’s not a
4:07
million tesla’s on the road they’re the
4:09
worst absolutely the worst remember the
4:10
worst best stock worst car um obviously
4:14
i’m joking i love the car i love the
4:16
stock um but even with a hit piece or
4:19
quote-unquote hit piece uh by a blog
4:21
tesla held up very very well and the one
4:23
thing that we did notice uh when they
4:26
did release
4:27
uh the notes right notes from the
4:28
meeting and powell was speaking they
4:30
tried to get the nasdaq down several
4:32
times they just couldn’t do it and that
4:34
was a very very uh important um theme
4:37
for today bulls actually held their
4:39
ground uh we actually did see uh some
4:42
pretty good option flow today all day uh
4:45
we saw going into the fed uh we saw 106
4:49
107 uh 110 111 and a halves uh
4:53
short-term expiration for amazon uh we
4:56
saw some
4:57
680 700 745s uh for tesla the one stock
5:02
that’s still giving me a little bit you
5:04
know i’m trying to digest what they’re
5:06
doing we’re still seeing a lot of
5:09
a lot of bets on apple even when the
5:11
market was rising we still saw a good
5:13
amount of bets for the 130 uh weekly
5:16
puts considering this two days of
5:17
expiration the stock was moving up a
5:19
little bit towards the afternoon it’s
5:20
kind of it’s kind of odd same thing with
5:22
nvidia right same thing with nvidia uh
5:24
they you know they were hitting you know
5:26
those they were hitting those those puts
5:28
pretty aggressively so again something
5:29
just to watch uh for the next couple of
5:31
days now look are we out of the woods
5:34
absolutely not right 100 absolutely not
5:36
uh all we did today was uh we had a nice
5:40
rally that’s all it was on the face of
5:41
face value uh you can see this orange
5:44
line if you’ve watched this video for a
5:45
while you kind of know the importance of
5:47
the five-day moving average that is the
5:49
short-term sentiment as you can see here
5:51
the q’s got rejected off the five-day
5:53
moving average uh if you look at the
5:55
spies right same thing right spies
5:57
traded up to the five-day moving average
5:59
rejected uh if you look at the iwm right
6:03
they didn’t quite make it to the
6:04
five-day moving average but this is kind
6:06
of you know where we are today now again
6:08
if you’re a bull you know beggars can’t
6:10
be choosers i think in this type of
6:12
environment i think any day uh that you
6:14
can get a green day is a good day right
6:17
you’re kind of buying your time but
6:19
here’s the problem when when the bulls
6:21
can’t reclaim the shortest term
6:23
sentiment right um that’s usually a you
6:26
know that’s that’s a that’s not a great
6:27
sign it’s really not and you know i i
6:30
tweeted out on the on the private
6:32
twitter feed today i go look let’s see
6:34
if we could get a day to rally i’m
6:36
skeptical based on this because again
6:38
the q’s would have to reclaim today’s
6:39
highs the spies would have to reclaim
6:41
today’s highs but i’m ready you know i’m
6:44
ready i put you know i put a bunch of
6:45
longs uh on the on on the list for
6:48
tomorrow
6:49
um but you know i am skeptical and if
6:51
you guys look at the last
6:53
fed meeting that we actually did have a
6:55
thousand point rally uh in the fed uh
6:58
the next three you know the next day
7:00
this candle completely engulfed the
7:02
three days of buying and started another
7:04
selling cycle so you know listen one day
7:07
at a time right i think that’s the best
7:08
way of saying when you’re trading on the
7:10
long side in a bear market cycle
7:13
again what are you hoping for right i
7:15
mean you’re hoping for
7:17
sellers get tired and we start to rally
7:18
that’s exactly what happened at the
7:20
bottom of the range here the problem was
7:22
after the consolidation of two weeks
7:24
they lost the 20 data they worked so
7:26
hard to reclaim only to take out the low
7:28
so it’s very very tough to get excited
7:30
here but at least let’s give the bulls
7:32
the benefit of the doubt for tomorrow
7:34
again i’m still you know pretty
7:36
skeptical but hey let’s see you know you
7:38
never know but if we start losing ranges
7:42
tomorrow again guys at the end of the
7:43
day the overall theme was we’re still in
7:46
a bear market scenario you know as long
7:48
as we stay blown to 50 they move very
7:50
much hell as long as we stay below now
7:51
the five-day moving average it’s gonna
7:53
be very very tough uh to get this market
7:55
rally but we’ll see right one day at a
7:57
time the only thing we could we could
7:58
ask for is to wake up right to wake up
8:00
in the morning to be healthy happy and
8:03
attack the markets with the data that we
8:05
have not the data uh that we want so
8:08
let’s talk about uh today right uh there
8:10
was only i put three long pivots to the
8:13
upside i put a bunch of uh pivots to the
8:15
downside obviously none of the downside
8:17
pivots triggered but the ones who
8:19
triggered to the upside you know did
8:21
fairly well so you had amazon uh amazon
8:24
yesterday it kept on getting rejected
8:26
off this 104 50 level if you look at the
8:28
60 minute view
8:31
right if you look at yesterday’s channel
8:33
sorry about this e-signal it feels like
8:35
it’s a day-to-day thing here e-signal
8:37
still hasn’t updated but if you look at
8:39
yesterday’s channel right um you will
8:41
see the top of this channel excuse me
8:44
wrong channel here here it is right here
8:45
if you look at this channel here it’s
8:47
104.50 you see it 104.40 1040. so we
8:51
knew if it started building above this
8:52
104.50 it was going to start the rally
8:54
you know nice first initial move it
8:56
started rallying then it got up to this
8:58
106.50 level uh that was the previous
9:02
channels high and then once the fed came
9:04
out a nice run into the five day again
9:06
this is the same thing as the qs and the
9:09
spies that they got rejected but had a
9:10
nice move uh into the 109 uh area again
9:14
you know that’s that’s the whole point
9:15
of technical analysis you don’t need a
9:16
hundred stocks you just need the ones uh
9:18
that you know are going to expand if
9:20
there is a reversal uh roblox never got
9:23
down to 25. uh tesla had two pivots
9:26
today one in the morning one in the
9:28
afternoon uh 680 needs to build rejected
9:31
back-to-back days first move was about
9:34
7.6 points was about six points and
9:36
that’s when that um and that’s when that
9:39
um
9:40
that hit piece came out or whatever the
9:42
hell it was the stupid hit piece that
9:44
got engulfed two hours later but here is
9:46
the 680 right you see it 680 680 so the
9:49
first move was into supply and that was
9:51
the afternoon pivot and you’ll see right
9:54
here here give me a second all these
9:56
other pivots they don’t make you know
9:57
they never confirmed down shop never
9:59
confirmed netflix airbnb they never
10:01
confirmed down uh fedex before we get to
10:04
the uh the tesla fedex nice move here
10:07
230 230 needs to build this was a
10:10
confirmation day to run by uh the
10:12
increase of dividend the other day so
10:15
here is here is a 230 250 right once it
10:18
got above that one to 240 nice push
10:20
there
10:21
uh
10:22
here it is here it is yeah so here is so
10:24
here is the next big area uh here was
10:26
the next big area of supply uh 688 so it
10:30
got above the 688 started building above
10:32
the 688 i said there’s a shot it could
10:35
get to uh there’s a shot it could get to
10:39
yeah right here 689 690 for experienced
10:41
traders for a move to 696 and 702 uh
10:45
tesla one you know took out the 96 took
10:48
out the 702 and traded all the way up to
10:51
uh 707 so that’s it right that’s it fed
10:54
days out of the way we did what we had
10:56
to do uh the fed did what we had to do
10:58
uh again is it a great economy no gas
11:01
prices through the roof everything’s
11:03
expensive inflation this that the other
11:05
thing
11:06
um but again we’re here right we’re here
11:08
whenever life throws at you you’re gonna
11:09
be prepared for it and the most
11:11
important part is always stay positive
11:14
and keep a smile on your face so
11:15
tomorrow again i’d like to see a day two
11:17
run in the of the bulls but again i’m
11:19
just very very skeptical uh especially
11:22
the way we got rejected on all major
11:24
moving averages on the five day moving
11:27
average but again
11:28
as they say all the time we shall see
11:31
said the blind man guys have a great
11:32
night enjoy god bless and i will see you
11:34
all tomorrow


Beware of this Bad Trading Habit 

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