With Italian risk subsiding after a government formation risk aversion and risk-on are now somewhat rebalanced and global markets are relatively unchanged.
Since Monday Euro, Sterling and Gold rose while Dollar, Yen and Crude Oil fell. Today, I would like to focus on Oil, as we are expecting EIA to report its weekly stocks, and also, on the Euro-Dollar, as this is the most tradable currency pair and opportunities are always in play.
Starting with Euro first. [EU] Euro-Dollar traded sideways yesterday with a slight bullish bias given a calmness in Italian politics as Italy has now formed a government.
In addition, an array of somewhat satisfactory Euro-wide PMI releases supported Euro’s marginal bullishness. With both RSI and MACD turning positive and an upward channel confirmed we could be expecting a break very soon.
[EU] As for today’s release, we have traders patiently waiting for EIAs report at 14:30 GMT, the weekly crude oil stocks report, following the same, coming from API just a day before.[WTI] Although oil finally halted and reversed just below the 23.6% Fibo in the Tuesday session following a positive API report an array of three consecutive losing days still plays its part days before the critical June 22 OPEC meeting.
Investors do remain cautious over OPEC production concerns yet have pushed price higher following the positive report from API. Oil price may fall lower as the upside trendline break indicates. On the shorter terms, commodity trades are most likely to go long if inventories decrease, short, if inventories increase.
[WTI] You are welcome to keep a close eye the EIA report, as it will have a substantial impact on the Oil prices.